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Overview

Fredrikson Government Relations hosted its Election Preview Night, an in-person and online event offering Republican and Democratic perspectives on the 2026 midterms. The evening’s presentations covered the national electoral landscape as well as Minnesota’s statewide races and closely divided Legislature. The speakers drew on decades of experience on both sides of the aisle. Senior Government Relations Specialist and former DFL legislator Jeff Hayden joined Chair Kevin Goodno, a former Republican legislator and Commissioner of Human Services, and Vice Chair Melissa Rahn, who previously ran House DFL caucus campaigns.

Federal Election Landscape

Jeff Hayden opened with the national picture, noting that midterm elections have historically served as a referendum on the incumbent administration, whichever party holds the White House. This cycle, 34 Senate seats and all 435 House seats are on the ballot, putting Republicans’ narrow majorities in both chambers in play. The competitive map has also widened, pulling Midwestern states such as Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska into play.

That national environment sets the stage for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat, vacated by Sen. Tina Smith. Republican Michelle Tafoya won her primary decisively despite not getting the party endorsement, while Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan won the DFL primary by roughly 20 points. The race is considered highly competitive. Flanagan is strongest in the Twin Cities and Tafoya in Greater Minnesota, which makes the suburbs and regional cities key battlegrounds.

Two congressional races are also drawing attention: the open 2nd District between DFL Matt Little and Republican Eric Pratt, and Rep. Brad Finstad’s 1st District against opponent Jake Johnson.

Key Issues Shaping the Election

Turning to the state contests, Kevin Goodno and Melissa Rahn first examined the issues driving voters. Both sides agreed that affordability tops the list, as voters feel rising grocery, gas and health care costs every day. State program fraud follows close behind, and Operation Metro Surge remains top of mind for many voters. Suburban districts could swing on whichever issue voters weigh more heavily. Other factors in the mix include:

• National headwinds facing the president’s party
• Crime and public safety
• Regional debates over AI data centers
• Scrutiny of state spending during the last DFL trifecta

Goodno added that Minnesota is less a purple state than a patchwork of distinctly red and blue regions, where voters often view the same issues very differently. That divide is especially visible in the governor’s race.

Governor’s Race

The two nominees took very different paths. After Gov. Walz exited the race, Sen. Amy Klobuchar became the DFL nominee essentially unopposed. House Speaker Lisa Demuth, by contrast, fought her way through the Republican primary. She defeated both the convention-endorsed Kendall Qualls and the Trump-endorsed Mike Lindell, an unprecedented result. Either nominee would become Minnesota’s first female governor.

Each candidate brings clear advantages to their respective campaigns:

• Klobuchar’s strengths: near-universal name recognition, a prosecutor’s background and a record of outperforming her party in Greater Minnesota
• Demuth’s strengths: a fresh, outsider profile and significant special interest spending support

Legislative Balance of Power

Control of both legislative chambers is also on the ballot. The House is functionally tied at 67-67, with 68 votes needed for a majority. Democrats are defending only one Trump-won seat, which is open, while Republicans are defending six districts carried by Harris in the last presidential election. The Senate is similarly close, with roughly 10 competitive seats split evenly between the parties. The DFL hopes to expand its one-seat majority, while Republicans see the Senate as an opportunity to take control of the body. Seats to watch include those held by Sens. Kupec, Hauschild and Abeler, along with the open Limmer seat. Across these races, panelists pointed to several common threads:

• Heavy spending by outside groups, with diminishing returns beyond a certain point
• Stronger candidates on both sides
• Increasingly negative and personal advertising

Both panelists also expressed confidence in the security of Minnesota’s elections.

Conclusion

The panelists agreed that Minnesota’s 2026 landscape is closely contested, shaped by affordability, fraud, federal immigration enforcement and national trends. Throughout the discussion, both panelists emphasized the importance of turnout and voter enthusiasm.

For more information or questions, contact Jeff Hayden.